Bucks Host Trail Blazers in Must-Win Clash at Fiserv Forum
Nov, 26 2025
The Milwaukee Bucks are fighting to avoid freefall as they host the Portland Trail Blazers at Fiserv Forum on Monday, November 24, 2025, at 8:00 p.m. ET. Despite entering the game with an 8-9 record and a four-game losing streak, the Bucks are favored by just 1.5 points — a sign of how fragile their momentum has become. The game, broadcast on Rip City Radio 620 Portland for Blazers fans, carries more weight than a typical midseason matchup. For Milwaukee, it’s a chance to halt a slide that’s seen them go 0-5 straight up and 0-5 against the spread. For Portland, it’s another opportunity to prove they can steal wins from even the most unlikely situations.
Conflicting Projections, Same Story
The analytics are all over the map. iHeartMedia's 950 KJR computer model predicts a 120-119 win for Portland — a one-point thriller. But Team Rankings sees it differently: 115.2 for Milwaukee, 113.8 for Portland, favoring the under. Meanwhile, Scores24 Live suggests Portland will stay under 117.5 points, while other outlets list the over/under between 230.5 and 235.5. The discrepancy isn’t just noise — it’s a reflection of how unpredictable this matchup has become. One model sees a high-scoring shootout; another sees a grind-it-out defensive battle. And both have data to back it up.
History Favors the Underdog — Again
Don’t let the Bucks’ recent home dominance fool you. While Milwaukee has won 10 of their last 11 home games against Portland by 3.5 points or more, the last two actual meetings tell a different story. On January 28, 2025, Portland won 125-112 despite being 6-point underdogs. Just 24 days earlier, on January 4, they pulled off a 105-102 upset as 12-point underdogs. That’s not luck. That’s pattern. The Trail Blazers have won four of their six games this season as underdogs, and when the moneyline is +105 or longer — exactly where they sit this time — they’re 4-5. This isn’t a fluke. It’s a psychological edge.
Why the Bucks Are Struggling
It’s not just the losses. It’s how they’re losing. Milwaukee’s offense has stalled. Their average home scoring is 120.75 points — solid — but they’ve gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Their defense? Fragile. Over the last 10 home games, they’ve surrendered the 27th-most offensive rebounds in the league (11.1 per game), giving opponents extra chances to score. And with Portland averaging 121.33 points on the road, that’s dangerous. The Bucks also play the fifth-slowest pace in the NBA over the last five games, a style that should help them control the game. But when you’re not making shots and giving up second-chance points, slowing the game down just means you’re losing slower.
Portland’s Quiet Confidence
The Trail Blazers aren’t flashy. They don’t have a superstar carrying them. But they’ve got grit. Their 7-10 record doesn’t tell the full story. They’ve won 40% of their games as underdogs this season — better than many teams with winning records. And they’ve done it by staying disciplined. Covers.com notes they’re expected to see fewer bets on this game because they’re facing a slow-paced team. That’s a red flag — when smart money avoids a team, it’s usually because they’ve seen something the public hasn’t. Portland’s ability to win close games, especially on the road, makes them a dangerous opponent here.
What’s at Stake
This isn’t just about breaking a losing streak. It’s about identity. The Bucks were title contenders last season. Now, they’re flirting with missing the playoffs in a stacked Eastern Conference. A loss here would make it five straight — and their record against the spread as favorites (3-5) suggests they’re not just losing, they’re losing in ways that erode confidence. For Portland, a win would be their third in four games as underdogs this month. It would signal they’re not just hanging on — they’re building something. With both teams fighting for playoff positioning in a tight Western Conference race, this game could be a turning point.
Final Thoughts
The numbers say one thing. The history says another. The Bucks are favored, but they’re reeling. The Trail Blazers are underdogs, but they’ve beaten these odds before — often with more ease than expected. The total points line is the real puzzle. If the game hits the upper end of the range (235+), Milwaukee’s offense might finally wake up. If it stays under 231, Portland’s defense and clutch execution will have done the job. One thing’s certain: this won’t be a blowout. It’ll be tight. It’ll be tense. And it might just decide which team keeps their season alive.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Bucks favored despite their losing streak?
The Bucks are still considered favorites due to their home-court advantage at Fiserv Forum, where they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games against Portland by 3.5+ points. Bookmakers also factor in Milwaukee’s overall roster strength and historical dominance in this rivalry, even though their recent form suggests they’re vulnerable. The -1.5 point line reflects lingering confidence in their talent, not current momentum.
Has Portland ever won as a big underdog against Milwaukee before?
Yes — twice in January 2025. On January 4, Portland won 105-102 as 12-point underdogs. Just 24 days later, they won 125-112 as 6-point underdogs. Both games came in Milwaukee, making the trend even more startling. These aren’t flukes; they’re evidence of a psychological edge the Trail Blazers have developed against the Bucks, particularly when playing with house money as underdogs.
What’s the most likely outcome based on betting trends?
While iHeartMedia’s model favors Portland by one point, the majority of sportsbooks have the total set between 230.5 and 235.5. With 52.9% of games involving Milwaukee hitting the over this season, and Portland averaging 121.3 points on the road, the over is slightly favored. However, the Trail Blazers’ recent defensive discipline and Milwaukee’s offensive stagnation suggest the under could win out — especially if the game stays close and late possessions are methodical.
How does this game impact playoff chances?
For Milwaukee, a loss would drop them to 8-10, putting them near the bottom of the Eastern Conference’s playoff race. With the East deeper than ever, every loss matters. For Portland, a win would push them to 8-10 — keeping them in the thick of the Western Conference’s 8th-place battle. With only a few games separating 7th from 10th, this could be a pivotal swing in seeding, especially if both teams are vying for home-court advantage in a potential first-round matchup.
Are there injury concerns affecting this game?
As of November 24, no official injury reports have been released by either team. However, Milwaukee’s recent offensive struggles — particularly from beyond the arc — suggest possible fatigue or unreported minor ailments. Portland’s depth has been a key factor in their ability to win close games, so if any key rotation players like Anfernee Simons or Scoot Henderson are limited, it could tilt the balance. Fans should monitor pre-game lineups closely.
What’s the historical head-to-head record between these teams?
The Bucks and Trail Blazers have met 36 times in regular-season play, with the home team winning 20 of those games. Milwaukee holds a slight edge in overall wins, but Portland has won six of the last 10 matchups — including four as underdogs. The trend since 2023 shows Portland winning more often in Milwaukee than expected, making this matchup one of the most unpredictable in the NBA.